Guatemala Green Cardamom
Crop Production for the Year 2013 -2014 - 2015
For the year 2013 the
harvesting and production of Green Cardamom crop in Guatemala began in the
month of October. It was speculated that the production would touch as high as
35,000 metric tons by local farmers, producers and exporters of Guatemalan
Green Cardamom.
October 2013
This envious optimism or
rather misplaced prediction by Guatemala Green Cardamom exporters lead to the
crash of the crops price at the farm gate levels. Then there were raids by tax
departments in Guatemala at various cardamom exporters’ offices accusing them
of over invoicing or under invoicing, which further lead to the turmoil.
November 2013
The aftermath of
taxation raid by the Guatemalan Taxation authorities in the month of November
2013 resulted in stoppage of sales at farm gate levels. The cardamom exports
and processors shied away from any purchases for the whole month of November.
The exporters who were busy defending themselves from the taxation authorities
ceased their purchase business to an end.
Hence resulting, no offers for Cardamom from Guatemala triggered panic buying in local markets of the major countries importing the product. The middlemen and stockers began their frantic purchases which resulted in the depletion of stocks from the crop year 2012 -2013 in international trading centers and consuming countries.
December 2013
As the Guatemala
cardamom exporters stopped their purchases the price of the crop fell
dramatically at the farm gate level. This led to hue and cry from the growers
and producers of cardamom, and in the month of December 2013 series of protests
were staged by them.
Check this link from Guatemala newspapers
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http://www.prensalibre.com/alta_verapaz/cardamomo-bloqueo_de_carreteras-productores_0_1007299347.html&edit-text
When the farmers had become cash strapped, and Christmas came knocking at their doors they were desperate for cash. It was time for the Guatemala green cardamom exporters to move in, and by the middle of December 2013 they started their purchasing ventures and bought the crops at throw away prices of USD 18 Cents/1 Lbs,
USD 40 Cents/1 Kilo,
USD 400.00/1 metric ton
It was hay days for the exporters who began to hoard the corps in their warehouses and began their exports for their cash flow. They managed to purchase more than 65% of the harvested crop at rock bottom rates.
Check the below link for
what Guatemala paid Cardamom farmers –
USD 18 Cents a POUND
USD40 Cents a KILOGRAMME
http://foxtownmedia.com/blog/2013/10/12/how-are-the-crops/
Exporter’s Happy New
Year 2014
The exporters at
Guatemala began their new year 2014 by initiating a plan for maximizing their profits
from the cardamom hoarded in their warehouses they tagged as UNSOLD.
They launched the plan named ‘THRIPS’ which created a bogus upsurge in the price of cardamom, and the prices shot up to almost 50% of the rates that prevailed during early December 2013.
P.S: THRIPS is as well a name of a common disease found in the plant cardamom, and it has prevailed since the cultivation of the crop began at Guatemala. It has nothing to do with the crop size.
February 2014
Due to the expectations
of bumper crop of cardamom the consumers and traders at root levels were
expecting fall in price of cardamom. But to their surprise the shipment sent
during December 2013 and January 2014 had not yet touched their shores when the
prices shot up to 50% of the price offered in December 2013.
Then again, owing to
panic buying initiated at major trading centers by importers and stockers, the
cardamom exporters jacked up the price of cardamom further in the month of
February 2014. The uncertainly that lies in price of cardamom has always
encouraged importing countries and traders to keep their stocks piled up.
Cardamom THRIPS was much
talked about by ‘THE REAL THRIPS’ at the GULF FOOD 2014, and prepared the
importers and buyers to pay as much as 100% premium on the UNSOLD crop lying in
Guatemala warehouses.
March 2014
During March 2014 the
Guatemala cardamom exporters exhausted their stocks and brimmed up their banks
with hefty profits. Later they downgraded the earlier announced size of
harvested cardamom crop in Guatemala to around 32,000 metric tons for the year
2013 – 2014, and all of it was announced as sold and shipped out of Guatemala.
April 2014
In April 2014 Guatemala
cardamom exporters rolled another dice by announcing “An expected El Nino in
South East Asia during the coming months”. This lead to whatever was leftover
getting sold in the importing countries and trading centers with 100% premium
from the prices quoted during December 2013.
May 2014
The markets stood firm
during May 2014 when the cardamom was shipped from the warehouses of Guatemala
to the consignee’s warehouses.
June 2014 Speculation
The volatile market of
cardamom had encouraged one and all to jump into the fray and make some profit
for themselves. Even a small middleman in markets around the world could not
resist buying cardamom, as it was speculated by importers, brokers, and
investors that the prices would reach the sky in coming future. The frantic
purchases by the investors resulted in their warehouses getting chocked with
crop stock during June 2014.
Quoting - “No More
Cardamom in Guatemala to offer”.
August 2014 – Cardamom
Exporters Up With Their Tricks Again
Good at spreading
rumors, the exporters let another one out, they claim that the drought during
July will delay the flowering of the plants, and the farmers will pluck unripe
fruits from the plants unknowingly. Now how they can predict the judgment of
the farmers is ridiculous, and the crop being close to the farmers’ hearts they
know more about them than the exporters. The exporters do not have the
authority to question the judgmental skills of the farmers of when to sow or
harvest their crop.
In spite of their
unrealistic prediction the cardamom exporters have begun selling cardamom to
the buyers at root levels. The question is if they predict unripe crop getting
plucked, why are they selling the crop at lower price than before? Another
mystery to be unfolded is that they had stated that there is no more cardamom
in Guatemala, then from where are they making their monthly sales.
According to our sources
the cardamom exporters for the month August still have around 2,500 metric tons
of crop stock which they are trying to sell in the Middle East. But the dull
markets have made their plan to backfire. The Guatemala cardamom exporters have
lost their trust, and their largest consumers who are in Saudi Arabia and
Kuwait have refused to lift any more stock. They are reeling under the pressure
of huge purchases made during the previous months. The cardamom stocks around
the world including Asian and Middle East trade centers have reached the
saturation point and there are no takers for the crop.
Guatemala Green Cardamom Crop Production 2012 – 2013
37,000 metric
tons + 3,000 metric tons (Carry Over from 2011 - 2012 at Origins).
Total Availability for Guatemalan Cardamom: 40,000 metric tons
Total Availability for Guatemalan Cardamom: 40,000 metric tons
Guatemala Green Cardamom
Crop Production 2013 – 2014
34,000 metric
tons + 4,000 metric tons (Carry Over from 2012 - 2013 at Origins).
Total Availability for Guatemalan Cardamom from Guatemala: 38,000 Metric Tons
Total Availability for Guatemalan Cardamom from Guatemala: 38,000 Metric Tons
Guatemala Green Cardamom
Crop Production 2014 - 2015
35,000 metric
tons + 4,000 metric tons (Carry Over from 2013 - 2014 at Origins).
Total Availability for Guatemalan Cardamom from Guatemala: 39,000 Metric Tons
Total Availability for Guatemalan Cardamom from Guatemala: 39,000 Metric Tons
New offers have been observed
from Guatemala Cardamom exporters and other exporters, and Cardamom Suppliers
for the UNSOLD stock, which are as follows: (Per KG Basis)
RS Jumbo - USD9.00
RS 1 - USD7.50 - USD8.00
Light Mix Green -
USD6.00 - USD6.50
MYQ - USD4.00
Offer for some other
suppliers for the New Crop 2014 - 2015 have been received as follows:
Pale Green Jumbo: USD
8.50
Pale Green Large: USD
7.50
Pale Green Medium: USD
6.50
Pale Green Small: USD
5.50
One Major CARDamom
EXporter have been playing devilish tactics since 2004 and still holding huge
quantities with them. Fooling around to sell on extremely higher levels. Still
this CARDamom EXporter is holding around 5000 Metric Tons from the old crop,
which he is unable to sell. Now, they are planning to mix the old crop with the
new crop to average out their export prices for the current crop of year 2014 –
2015
September 2014 – Expecting Bumper Crop of 35,000
Metric Tons for Year 2014 - 2015
Where are THRIPS??
Enjoying Luxurious Life in Guatemala - Vacation in Bahamas
Where is El-Nino - Drought?? Real drought is in Cardamom Importer's Bank Account.
Where is Cardamom??
Buyers Warehouse and around 5,000 Tons in Guatemala with Exporters.
Where is Monsoon?? Real Financial Monsoon arrived 6 Months earlier i.e.; March 2014 in Cardamom Exporters Balance
Sheet.
We have been receiving
reports for the new Guatemalan Green cardamom Production Year 2014 - 2015 to be
pegged around 35,000 Metric Tons. Excluding 5,000 Metric Tons from the
carryover of last year crop of 2013 - 2014.
We are following
Guatemalan cardamom market very closely, for all the developments regarding the
Cardamom market and export figures from Guatemala visit us regularly.
CAUTION:
We have cautioned the
buyers since March 2014 as we have observed the dubious designs of Cardamom
Exporters since 2004 – 2005.
The hype and unrealistic
rumors that they spread make the buyers and consumers gullible. The exporters
never sell when the market it to move upwards, they open up their stocks only
when the market is about to slide down.
CURRENT SCENARIO: MARKETS REVISING TREND
The underlying stocks at
various destinations can be estimated by the Guatemala Customs Statistics.
Below mentioned are the underlying stocks situation and prices at major trading
hubs including Dubai, Singapore, Hamburg, and Rotterdam.
Dubai
The traders in Dubai
have hoarded Green, Pale Green, and Yellow crop of cardamom in their
warehouses. They had hoped a rise in demand for them during the holy month of
Ramadan, but it was not to happen as the consumers stayed away.
Though there is always a demand as the consumption is always there. It is just that the demands for cardamom are met by the local importers and stockiest in the Middle Eastern countries that were also taken for a ride by the Guatemala cardamom exports and ended up buying the crop directly from them. The major buyers of the crop in the Dubai market are from countries like Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Sudan, Tunisia, Syria, and Afghanistan.
With the world markets flooded with cardamom, the buying activity has come to a grinding halt. Even the local stockiest in Dubai could not bail out in time and they are stuck with huge stocks sitting idle in their warehouses.
The traders realized their setback when the MLG (Medium Light Green) Grade which stood at AED 38.00/kg – AED 40.00/kg began to slide. At present the price of the most commonly traded grade MLG hovers around AED 32.5/kg – AED 34.00/kg depending upon the market conditions. MYQ Grade is available around AED 17.00/kg
USD 1.00 - AED 3.6735
Singapore
The Singaporean market also lacks vibrancy as its main importers from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Nepal have their stocks full, and are able to cater the local demands till the new crop arrives. The local importers look all the more enticing as they may offer lower prices than that offered at Guatemala.
Current offers for the most commonly traded grade RS 1 in Singapore trade center is around USD 7.50/kg – USD 8.00/kg, CNF Bangladesh and Pakistan.
While the price of RS 1
grade and other similar grades in the importing countries range between USD
7.50 – USD 8.25 depending upon the local market demands. The prices are
excluding the local taxes.
Europe
European countries are the buyers of MYQ (Mixed Yellow Qualities) grade, which they use for grinding purposes. They are the ones who had the minimal impact of upheaval created by Guatemala cardamom exporters as they are aware of their bag of tricks. Their interests were also safeguarded from the fact that their required grade of MYQ is available throughout the year.
India
Check out these links for the latest real time Indian cardamom markets, their crop, and weather updates.
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/commodities/cardamom-loses-flavour-on-slack-demand-hopes-of-higher-crop/article6050159.ece
http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/cardamom-sheds-0-60-on-low-spot-demand-114061600265_1.html
http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/cardamom-down-over-1-on-weak-demand-114061700395_1.html
The weakening Indian
rupee is further putting pressure on export prices for Indian cardamom.
Monsoon Arrivals in
India
The monsoons have
arrived in India, and especially in the Southern Indian states of Kerala and
Karnataka who are the main producers of cardamom, the rainfalls have been
normal which has further lowered the cardamom prices in India.
Further updates can be
found from the links mentioned below for the reader's reference.
Above weather report
forecast on 22nd June 2014 states clearly good rainfall in
Kerala.
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/todays-paper/tp-news/marginal-improvement-in-rainfall-over-last-week/article6135178.ece
Above weather report
published on 20th June 2014 mentions clearly adequate rainfalls
in Karnataka.
Latest Monsoon Update
for August 2014 from Government of India mentioning normal rain falls in
Cardamom producing region i.e.: Kerala and Karnataka.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/Monsoon_frame.htm
Conclusion: The importers and stockiest of cardamom in India are under pressure to sell off their stocks before the new crop hits the markets.
It is estimated that in
the current year 2014 – 2015 the Indian Cardamom yield will be about minimum
18,500 – 19,000 excluding 3,500 Metric Tons from last year crop of 2013 – 2014.
Hence, the total availability for Indian Cardamom will be up to 22,000 Metric
Tons during 2014 – 2015.
The Indian Green
Cardamom production for the year 2013 -2014 which was 22,000 metric tons and
current years’ tonnage will include the leftover from the previous year.
El Nino signs are also evading away and the monsoon rains with heavy showers over Southern India is set to boost the yield or would at least maintain the crop size of cardamom.
Latest Monsoon situation
in India:
India is all set for at
least the same size crop as last year. If there is any deficit it will stand
around 18,500 – 19,000 metric tons, plus there will also be a carried forward
stock from the cardamom production of year 2013 – 2014.
Check the below link:
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/commodities/cardamom-loses-flavour-on-slack-demand-hopes-of-higher-crop/article6050159.ece
Advice to Buyers: Be
realistic and avoid being over optimistic. Buy as per need. Don't lend your
ears to cardamom exporters’ irrelevant and unrealistic crop news and reports.
Offload your material. Indian Cardamom production is already underway and from
September 2014 we expect flow in full swing, whereas Guatemalan Green Cardamom
harvesting is just 30 Days away from date.
The author of this
report Mr. James Mathew
Or email us for daily
updates: jamesmathewuk45@gmail.com
